Just eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to address. History, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
