A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
